Renewals Pipeline Health Grader
Grade renewal risk 90 days out and value the ARR on the line.
On watch, $22,500 is soft. The weakest signals are where to intervene now, 90 days out, while there's still time to change the trajectory.
Adoption and realised value carry the most weight because they predict renewals better than sentiment, a happy user who doesn't use the product still churns.
About this calculator
By the time an account explicitly signals it won't renew, it's usually too late to change the outcome, the leading indicators showed up 60-90 days earlier in adoption trends, sponsor strength, and support sentiment. This grader scores those four signals into a weighted health score and translates the resulting churn risk directly into the ARR that account puts on the line.
How to use it
- Rate four 90-day signals as Positive, Flat/neutral, or Negative: product adoption/usage trend, executive sponsor strength, support sentiment/ticket trend, and realized value versus goals.
- Enter the account's ARR.
- Read the health score out of 100, the risk band (Healthy, Watch, or At risk), churn risk as a percentage, and the ARR at risk.
Methodology
Each signal carries a weight, adoption 30, sponsor strength 20, support sentiment 20, realized value 30, and scores 1 point (Positive), 0.5 (Flat/neutral), or 0 (Negative). The health score is the sum of weight × points across all four signals, out of 100.
Churn risk is simply 100 minus the health score, the inverse of health. ARR at risk is account ARR × churn risk percentage, a risk-weighted exposure figure rather than an assumption that the account will definitely churn.
Health score of 75+ bands as Healthy, 50-74 as Watch, below 50 as At risk, thresholds meant to separate accounts needing only light-touch attention from ones needing an active save play.
Adoption and realized value carry the heaviest weight (30 each) deliberately, because usage and outcomes predict renewal better than sentiment alone, a customer who reports being happy in a check-in call but has declining product usage is still a real churn risk the sentiment alone wouldn't catch.
FAQ
Because a happy relationship with a strong sponsor doesn't prevent churn if the product isn't actually being used or isn't delivering the value the customer signed up for. Sentiment and sponsor strength matter, but usage and outcomes are the more reliable leading indicators of an actual renewal decision.
Identify which specific signal is weakest and intervene on that signal directly, 90 days out is enough runway to change trajectory on adoption or realized value if you act, but that window closes fast as renewal approaches.
No, it's a risk-weighted exposure figure, ARR × churn risk percentage, not a hard prediction. Treat it as a way to prioritize save-play effort across accounts by dollar exposure, not as a forecast that specific dollar amount will actually be lost.